I. Why Polypeptides Must Be Discussed Today
Over the past 12 months, the hottest pharmaceutical keyword in global capital markets has not been ADCs or gene therapy—it has been “polypeptides.” From social media buzz over “miracle weight-loss drugs” to multinational pharmaceutical companies placing multi-billion-dollar capacity expansion orders, and from provincial “15th Five-Year Plan” bioeconomy strategies in China listing “polypeptide APIs and formulations” as priority tracks—the signals are clear: polypeptide drugs have entered a phase of triple resonance—policy, technology, and capital.
The Zhongyan Puhua Research Institute recently released the 2025–2030 Polypeptide Drug Industry Market Deep Research and Investment Value Analysis Report (hereinafter referred to as the Report), which continuously tracks four major global databases: patents, clinical trials, production capacity, and policy. The conclusion is straightforward:
“Over the next five years, the polypeptide sector is expected to experience ‘non-linear’ growth. Those who understand the rules first will gain the access key to the next wave of biopharmaceuticals.”
II. Translating Technology into “Plain Language”: What Problem Do Polypeptides Solve?
Traditional small-molecule drugs act like a “master key”: they can open the wrong doors and often carry significant side effects. Large-molecule antibody drugs are like a “high-precision access system”: safe but costly and requiring cold-chain logistics. Polypeptides lie in between, with molecular weights ranging from thousands to tens of thousands. They combine the high selectivity of antibodies with the scalability of chemical synthesis, offering a cost structure far more favorable than protein-based biologics.
The Report visualizes this with a “clinical attrition rate comparison chart”: for chronic disease candidates entering Phase II, polypeptides have a nearly 30% higher success rate than small molecules. The reason is that polypeptides bind to targets in a “lock-and-key” manner, naturally exhibiting low off-target toxicity. Historical FDA data show their black-box warning rate is less than half that of small molecules.
For payers, this means fewer obstacles in entering reimbursement negotiations; for patients, this means better compliance—who wants to take “cheap drugs that harm the liver and kidneys” every day, when a once-weekly, controllable side-effect polypeptide pen exists?
III. Demand-Side: Three “Volcanoes” Erupting Simultaneously
Obesity: Leading global economies now classify obesity as a chronic relapsing disease rather than an aesthetic issue. The WHO guidelines officially categorize BMI ≥30 as requiring intervention. GLP-1 polypeptides raise clinical weight-loss endpoints from 5% to 15%, instantly opening a consumer-level market.
Diabetes: Post-insulin centralized procurement has left thin profit margins, driving the urgent need for “upgraded” products. Polypeptide weekly formulations replacing basal insulin have become a new consensus in endocrinology, with prescription penetration in Chinese tertiary hospitals quadrupling over two years.
Age-related comorbidities: Heart failure, NASH, Alzheimer’s… these areas lack effective treatments, but clinical trials have shown that polypeptides can significantly slow disease progression. From public insurance to private insurance to personal health accounts, the potential willingness to pay far exceeds market expectations.
Zhongyan Puhua’s demand model collectively refers to these three patient groups as the “volcano population”—once prices reach the equivalent of a daily self-paid simple meal, demand explodes. The Report conservatively predicts that the global polypeptide-using population will double in five years, with China’s growth potentially exceeding the global average due to faster commercial insurance penetration.
IV. Supply-Side: Capacity is the Constraint, Not Orders
Since the second half of 2024, multinational giants have flocked to China to secure polypeptide APIs. Yet domestic large-scale FDA-compliant production lines remain scarce. The bottleneck lies in polypeptide synthesis, which involves a combination of solid-phase and liquid-phase processes, each purification step requiring GMP-grade chromatography. Equipment depreciation and solvent costs are far higher than for small molecules.
Zhongyan Puhua’s visits to more than ten CDMOs in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta summarize the industry’s pain points as “Three Highs and Two Longs”: high fixed investment, high environmental compliance costs, high purification costs; long construction periods, long validation cycles.
The Report introduces a “capacity equals valuation” logic: increasing single-step reaction yield by 10% can lower kilogram cost by 20%, directly translating into exclusive order rights. From 2026 onward, China is expected to see a “capacity is king” M&A wave, with companies holding green synthesis patents and continuous-flow process packages enjoying both “technology premium + capacity premium.”
V. Policy-Side: Closing the 14th Five-Year Plan, Preparing the 15th, Polypeptides Are on the Agenda
The National Health Commission’s Healthy China Initiative—Chronic Disease Prevention and Control Implementation Plan (2024–2030) explicitly lists “promotion of GLP-1 receptor agonists and other innovative polypeptides” as an action goal. The NDRC’s Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2025 edition) encourages “polypeptide large-scale synthesis technologies.” Major biopharmaceutical clusters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing list “polypeptide APIs and formulations” at the top of investment attraction materials.
Zhongyan Puhua’s policy team notes that local governments provide generous support: projects meeting fixed asset investment intensity standards may receive equipment subsidies covering up to tens of percent of the investment, plus R&D tax deductions. For startups, proper site selection could mean nearly 50% discount on “construction + equipment.” The stereotype of “innovative drug development equals burning cash” has been rewritten under favorable policies.
VI. Capital-Side: After Valuation Corrections, Long-Term Funds Start “Left-Side Positioning”
After the 2021–2023 biotech bubble burst, Hong Kong 18A and Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies saw average drawdowns exceeding 70%, making the market cautious about healthcare. Yet the Report finds that since Q4 2024, leading US-dollar funds and sovereign wealth funds have increased positions in polypeptides, citing three reasons:
Track visibility: GLP-1 sales curves are transparent; no need to bet “zero or one.”
China’s engineering advantage + centralized environmental governance: Global capacity is shifting eastward.
Acceptance of cash-generating APIs by long-term RMB funds (insurance, industrial funds): Pre-IPO stage entry is possible, unlike unprofitable innovative drugs.
Zhongyan Puhua predicts a dual listing window on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Sci-Tech Innovation Board from 2025–2027. Companies exceeding RMB 1 billion in revenue with double-digit net margins will likely see rapid valuation recovery. In short, during the capital winter, polypeptides are among the most likely sectors to break the ice first.
VII. Risk Warnings: Beware the “Sweet Trap”
Technology switch: Oral polypeptides, transdermal microneedles, long-acting implants—if commercialized early, may disrupt current injection formulations.
Centralized procurement expansion: If GLP-1 weekly formulations enter national procurement, price cuts will compress margins; reliance on a single product may be risky.
Environmental and carbon compliance: Polypeptide synthesis uses large amounts of DMF, DCM, etc.; European CBAM carbon tariffs and domestic environmental taxes may force exit of lagging capacity.
Patent cliff: Early GLP-1 compound patents will expire starting 2026. While process patents provide protection, generics will likely enter the market rapidly.
The Report recommends a “Three Don’ts and One Must” strategy: don’t bet on a single product, don’t compete on price, don’t touch high-pollution capacity; do preemptively develop next-generation delivery platforms and indication pipelines to hedge patent cliffs.
VIII. Conclusion: The Golden Five Years, Opportunities Belong to “Prepared Capital”
Polypeptides are not a new concept, but they are a new cycle. Technical maturity, payer willingness, policy incentives, and capital preference converge in 2025, forming a rare “golden cross.” Based on eight years of continuous monitoring of patents, clinical trials, production, and policy globally, Zhongyan Puhua concludes:
“Over the next five years, the polypeptide sector will recreate a dual RMB 100-billion market for ‘innovative drugs + APIs,’ and China is likely to transition from a ‘follower’ to a ‘co-creator of rules.’”
Thorough research ensures confident investment. Zhongyan Puhua leverages a professional data research system to systematically collect, organize, analyze, and interpret vast industry information, providing customized data solutions and strategic decision support for clients. Our scientific models and industry insights help partners control investment risk, optimize operational costs, uncover opportunities, and enhance market competitiveness.
For further industry insights, refer to Zhongyan Puhua Research Institute’s latest 2025–2030 Polypeptide Drug Industry Market Deep Research and Investment Value Analysis Report, which provides authoritative guidance for strategic planning based on global perspective and local practice.
